A chilling new statement from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has pushed relations between Moscow and the West into one of their tensest moments since the start of the Ukraine conflict. Speaking at a G20 meeting on September 25, Lavrov accused NATO and the European Union of having “already declared a real war” against Russia, warning of looming “regional conflicts” and “global instability” if the United Nations fails to enforce its charter.
The dramatic rhetoric underscores how far Moscow’s confrontation with the West has spiraled, moving from accusations of proxy conflict to claims of outright war.
A Growing Confrontation
Lavrov’s comments came amid a series of high-profile incidents between Russia and NATO members. Just days before, Estonia accused Moscow of violating its sovereign airspace in what it described as the most aggressive breach yet.
According to Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets crossed into Estonia’s airspace for roughly twelve minutes — a brazen move that immediately drew condemnation.
“Russia has violated Estonian airspace four times already this year, which is unacceptable in itself,” Tsahkna said. “But today’s violation, during which three fighter jets entered our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen. Russia’s ever-increasing testing of borders and aggressiveness must be responded to by rapidly strengthening political and economic pressure.”
Moscow denied the claim, insisting its aircraft had remained over international waters in the Baltic Sea. Still, the incident has heightened fears that a miscalculation could trigger a direct clash between Russian and NATO forces.
Nuclear Threats Stoke Alarm
Lavrov’s statement also followed a disturbing string of comments from Vladimir Solovyov, a prominent Russian state media figure and close ally of President Vladimir Putin. Solovyov recently suggested that Russia should drop nuclear bombs on Oxford and Cambridge as a way to send a chilling message to the West.
While he acknowledged that nuclear use would be “a terrible sin,” Solovyov argued that refraining from using them in defense of Russia could be “an even greater sin” if it condemned the nation to defeat in war. His rhetoric underscores how nuclear threats, once unthinkable in peacetime, have increasingly entered mainstream Russian discourse since the invasion of Ukraine.
Lavrov’s G20 Warning
At the G20 gathering, Lavrov doubled down on Moscow’s line that the war in Ukraine was provoked by the “collective West.” He argued that by supplying Ukraine with weapons, financial aid, and intelligence, NATO and the EU were no longer acting as outside supporters but as direct participants in what he called a “real war” against Russia.
“A clear example is the crisis in Ukraine, provoked by the collective West, through whose hands NATO and the EU want to declare, have already declared, a real war on my country and are directly participating in it,” Lavrov told reporters.
He claimed that unless the UN charter — which calls on members to work together to end “the scourge of war” — is enforced, the world should expect escalating conflicts and worsening instability.
Trump’s Surprising Shift
Lavrov’s comments coincided with a surprising development in U.S. politics. Former President Donald Trump, who has often been criticized for appearing soft on Putin, appeared to make a sharp pivot after meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the UN General Assembly in New York.
In remarks following their meeting, Trump said Russia was in “BIG Economic trouble” and encouraged Ukraine to press its advantage.
“With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original borders from where this war started is very much an option,” Trump wrote. “Why not? Russia has been fighting aimlessly for three and a half years, a war that should have taken a real military power less than a week to win. This does not distinguish Russia. In fact, it is very much making them look like a paper tiger.”
Trump’s statement marks one of his strongest public endorsements of Ukraine since the war began and adds a new dimension to the U.S. debate over how to confront Russia.
Europe Braces for Escalation
European leaders, already rattled by repeated airspace violations and hybrid threats, are likely to see Lavrov’s words as confirmation of their worst fears. NATO members on Russia’s borders — particularly the Baltic states and Poland — have been warning for years that Moscow’s aggressive posture could spill beyond Ukraine.
The latest accusations and threats add urgency to ongoing discussions within NATO about increasing air defenses, troop deployments, and economic sanctions. For countries like Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, the line between provocation and outright conflict feels increasingly thin.
What Lavrov’s Words Mean
Diplomatic observers say Lavrov’s framing of NATO and the EU as parties to a “real war” is part of a larger strategy to justify Russia’s ongoing struggles in Ukraine and to prepare the Russian public for further mobilization.
By painting the conflict not as a war against Ukraine but as a defensive struggle against the combined forces of the West, Moscow can rally domestic support while explaining away battlefield setbacks.
At the same time, such rhetoric is dangerous. By declaring that NATO is already at war with Russia, Lavrov narrows the space for future negotiations and risks normalizing the idea of direct confrontation between nuclear-armed powers.
A Volatile Road Ahead
As the war in Ukraine grinds into its fourth year, the risks of escalation are rising. Airspace violations, nuclear saber-rattling, and accusations of outright war leave little room for de-escalation.
For the West, the challenge will be balancing support for Ukraine with measures to avoid giving Moscow the pretext for further aggression. For Russia, the choice may be between doubling down on confrontation or finding a way to walk back from the brink without admitting weakness.
What is clear is that the language now being used — “declared war,” “paper tiger,” “nuclear strikes” — suggests that both sides see the conflict not merely as a regional dispute but as a test of global power and resolve.
Conclusion
Sergey Lavrov’s declaration that NATO and the EU have already declared war on Russia marks one of the most confrontational statements yet from a Kremlin official. Coming on the heels of airspace incidents, nuclear threats from Russian media allies, and shifting U.S. positions on Ukraine, his words reflect the increasingly dangerous trajectory of the conflict.
The world now faces a sobering reality: as long as Moscow and the West continue to escalate their rhetoric, the chances of a miscalculation or deliberate escalation grow ever higher. Whether diplomacy can reassert itself in time to prevent “regional conflicts” from becoming global ones remains one of the most urgent questions of the decade.